Jalen Carter vs. Darnell Wright? Justin Fields hindsight? Bears Mailbag, Week 4 picks

Justin Fields versus Russell Wilson and Sean Payton’s return to Chicago wasn’t supposed to be the laughingstock battle of the season.

Two marquee quarterbacks, one marquee coach, two historic franchises meeting up at Soldier Field for the first time in eight years.

In reality: Two 0-3 teams, two of the worst defenses in football, and two angry, befuddled fan bases.

“It’s gonna come down to a determining group out there,” head coach Matt Eberflus said this week. “The Chicago Bears need to be determined to get this thing done. It’s gonna come down to that moment in the game. There’s gonna be a moment in the game in the second half that we got to do it, right? And we got to pull together and get that done. It’s gonna be done through execution.”

We could see a situation where both teams play not to lose. An 0-4 start, with a loss to either, would be pretty devastating. With that in mind, Sunday could be more exciting than we think. It’s the Bears’ and Broncos’ Super Bowl.

Now, on to your questions.

Hey Kevin, what is it about the makeup of the Bears organization that they consistently have lacked an ability to develop young QBs, or receivers, for that matter? Not just Fields, but also Mitch Trubisky and a few other young QBs they have drafted or added to the roster in the past. Also what is it about the Bears that they can’t seem to identify capable QBs? I mean they seemed to have missed on QBs more than any other team in the league. — James H.

When thinking about this question, I checked out the Browns. Their first-round quarterback draft picks include Tim Couch, Brady Quinn, Brandon Weeden, Johnny Manziel and Baker Mayfield.

In the same stretch, the Bears have used first-rounders on Cade McNown, Rex Grossman, Trubisky and Fields.

That’s not the company you want to keep.

But the Bears are a lot more like the Browns than the Packers, at least over the past 30 years.

Evaluating quarterbacks isn’t easy. As much flak as the Bears get for missing on Patrick Mahomes, the rest of the league did, too. How many other teams should’ve traded up for him when the Chiefs did? But when you’re constantly cycling through GMs and head coaches, when you’re struggling to maintain any type of stability inside the building, it makes identifying — and then developing — a quarterback that much harder.

The Bills offer hope. They went through a few decades of mediocre quarterbacks before they got Josh Allen. I almost included the Bengals, who happened to have the top pick when Joe Burrow was coming out, but heck, Andy Dalton would be considered a Bears great with his numbers in Cincinnati. Carson Palmer would have a statue outside Soldier Field.

It just takes one, and it takes some luck. The Bears thought they had that luck when teams passed on Fields, but that hasn’t proven to be the case.

All the reasons the Bears haven’t won enough in the past few decades can also be tied to the quarterback position. The wrong GMs have been hired. The wrong head coaches have been hired. The wrong GMs draft the wrong quarterbacks and the wrong head coaches can’t develop them properly.

There isn’t one singular reason for it. Each quarterback has his own story, but they all tie back to the team that hasn’t won a playoff game in nearly 12 years.

At some point, the Bears will stumble into a great quarterback. Right?

Is it fair to call the draft decision to take Darnell Wright over Jalen Carter a bad one? — J S.

A popular question this week, and one that will linger throughout the season, and possibly the next few for the No. 9 and 10 picks of the 2023 draft.

Carter is off to a scintillating start in Philly. He has more sacks (1.5) and forced fumbles (2) than the entire Bears defense. He also has two tackles for loss and a pair of QB hits.

Wright has been solid. He has only two false start penalties. For what it’s worth, Pro Football Focus has Wright with five pressures allowed on 114 pass-blocking stats, which is a better rate than the rest of the starters.

“You guys can see from the first three games, he can block almost anybody, and then with time comes consistency,” offensive line coach Chris Morgan said. “It’s exciting.”

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As each Bears game ends in misery, fans are seeing highlights of Carter dominating opposing O-linemen. The same can’t be said about Wright’s pass blocking.

There are two challenges with answering this question. One, it’s way too early in their careers. Two, I’m still of the belief the Bears were never going to draft Carter. Their trade solidified that. That makes it a difficult hypothetical for me to consider.

Carter gets to start alongside Fletcher Cox, Jordan Davis, Haason Reddick and Josh Sweat. That veteran locker room was the perfect one for Carter, and he doesn’t have to be “the guy” up front for the Eagles. I don’t think he would’ve been having similar success in Chicago with this team.

It may go down as a bad decision three, five, seven years from now, but it was likely never going to happen anyway.

Now that we’re three weeks into the season, how would you revisit your offseason assessment of Justin Fields’ prospects? Is there anything you’d want to change about this piece? — Adam F.

Thanks for the question, Adam. The story that we published in May expressed both the hope and lingering questions surrounding Fields. The excitement in the city was palpable, but skeptics remained.

“He struggles when the bullets are flying,” one scout said. Another added, “Everyone knows Fields has the ability. He has to improve his decision-making.”

The table included in the story showed how poorly Fields ranked as a passer compared to other young quarterbacks over the past decade. Those numbers have only gotten worse, and reaffirmed the historic turnaround Fields would have to put together to be a “franchise quarterback.”

The most interesting part of the story in hindsight is the analysis from Robert Griffin III, a dual-threat quarterback who played in a similar scheme.

“I felt like early in the year, (Fields) was trying to play quarterback as opposed to just playing football. I think it let him get into his own head a little bit too much,” Griffin said. “Starting in that (Patriots) game, I just believe the coaching staff, him, they sat down and they allowed him to go out and start playing football — using his legs to generate positive momentum for him to get back to the place that he was at in college.”

That sentiment was expressed by Fields after the Bucs game. What makes it strange, looking back, is if Griffin spotted that last season, why didn’t the Bears in the lead-up to this one?

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Griffin also said, in that story, how the scheme is designed to set up easy passes because of the run game. The Bears haven’t run the ball well. There haven’t been “gimme” completions.

An opposing defensive coach quoted in the story said the Bears have to “win with their run game and movement pass game.” We haven’t seen that, either, but we’ve heard a lot about it.

Without rehashing the entire piece, I do think it still stands on its own. It reflected the confidence some connected to the team had in Fields, and explored what it could mean if the Bears got it right, but also — in some ways — foresaw the struggles that have been apparent this season.

Any injury updates on offense linemen Teven Jenkins and Doug Kramer? Are both expected to rejoin 53-man roster after Sunday’s game? Any chance either will start Thursday’s game? — Brett S.

The Thursday night game throws a bit of a wrinkle in any possible comeback. I wouldn’t be surprised if Jenkins is ready to return, but the Bears won’t be holding practices next week, only walkthroughs on Monday and Tuesday. That would not be an ideal situation for him, or Kramer, to return to game action.

The extra time, though, could set either one up — I’d be more confident about Jenkins — to return for the Week 6 game against the Vikings.

Kevin, if this season keeps going this way … realizing it’s not even October … how do you guys as reporters stay engaged? The prospect of multiple games with backup quarterbacks and a miserable team seems tough to report on. It’s almost like you’re reporting on the offseason because the games almost certainly won’t be meaningful. — Jim A.

Unfortunately, or fortunately, I’ve got some experience in this realm. If you’re looking for someone to blame for the Bears’ lack of success over the past decade, I joined the beat in 2013 and they’ve had one winning record since, so trying to find stories for a team that is at the bottom of the standings has become a bit of specialty. Although it usually isn’t top of mind in September.

Certainly as we get closer to the winter, and if the Bears are still mired in misery, we can start looking ahead to the 2024 draft and free agency. And a key with any team that is either rebuilding or starting over is figuring out which current players can be part of a future foundation, so that means extra analysis about the past two draft classes.

Have you asked Jon if you could switch to the NU hoops beat? — Jordan M.

And leave the Bears? Of course not! Plus, I enjoy getting to be a fan at Welsh-Ryan Arena.

What are you most looking forward to for the upcoming Blackhawks season? — Joe K.

Connor Bedard! And the outstanding coverage from Mark Lazerus and Scott Powers, of course.

Bears-Broncos fun facts

• The all-time series is tied 8-8. The Bears have a 4-3 edge at Soldier Field.

• The last time the teams met was in 2019, when Eddy Piñeiro hit a 58-yard field goal as time expired for a 16-14 win.

• In 2015, the Broncos beat the Bears 17-15 in their most recent trip to Soldier Field. It was the first of Brock Osweiler’s three wins against the Bears (with three different teams). Jeremy Langford scored a touchdown with 24 seconds left but the two-point conversion failed.

• The last time the Bears beat the Broncos in Chicago was 2007, a 37-34 win that featured kickoff- and punt-return touchdowns from Devin Hester.

• Sean Payton was 7-3 against the Bears as Saints head coach, including a 1-1 record in the postseason.

• Payton, who went to Naperville Central and Eastern Illinois, played in three games for the Bears during the 1987 strike.

Game picks: Bears (+3.5) vs. Broncos, Noon CT on CBS

Kevin Fishbain (3-0 straight up, 3-0 against the spread): Broncos 29, Bears 20

As much as I wanted to predict a tie, because that’s probably the deserved result for this matchup, the Broncos can still throw the ball around and the Bears have shown little in terms of defending it. Denver is seventh in yards per pass, the Bears are 31st in yards allowed per pass — not to mention they have one sack on the year. I haven’t seen anything to tell me that Fields and this offense can pick apart a woeful Denver defense.

Adam Jahns (2-1, 1-2): Broncos 30, Bears 24

I have more confidence in Russell Wilson getting his first win this season than Justin Fields at this point. He should be able to pick apart the Bears’ defense, which is dealing injuries in the secondary. Fields should be able to find some success against a bad Broncos defense. But predicting that will happen is difficult because of how bad the offense has been overall.

Jon Greenberg (2-1, 1-2): Broncos 30, Bears 27

I’m crazy enough to pick the Bears to cover (again) but not enough to predict that they’ll beat a team coming off a 70-20 loss. The Broncos win their first game of the season on a field goal in front of an angry crowd. Progress? That’s what the Bears will be selling after this one. But will anyone buy it?

Dan Pompei (2-1, 1-2): Broncos 30, Bears 27

The Broncos gave up 70 points and missed tackles all over the field last week, which makes offensive coordinators salivate. But Luke Getsy doesn’t have Tua Tagovailoa, Tyreek Hill, Raheem Mostert and company to work with. The Bears should be able to score more than they have, but they also are likely to struggle to contain the Broncos offense, which is better than advertised. Russell Wilson is the seventh-highest-rated passer in the league, and he’s thrown for the eighth-most yards. He should be able to improve his numbers against a sorry Bears defense.

Nick Kosmider (Broncos beat writer): Broncos 24, Bears 19

The Bears have a bad defense. The Broncos have a bad defense. The Bears have a bad offense. The Broncos have a … maybe average-ish offense? I’m taking Russell Wilson to be slightly more adept at exploiting the many holes of a struggling opposing defense than Justin Fields will be, but none of it will be pretty.

(Photo of Darnell Wright: Cooper Neill / Getty Images)

The Football 100, the definitive ranking of the NFL’s best 100 players of all time, goes on sale this fall. Pre-order it here.

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